Your Detailed Market Update for Oxford County - Woodstock, Ingersoll and Norwich Township for the 3rd Quarter 2021
Friday Oct 22nd, 2021
OXFORD COUNTY:
New Listings continue to decline since the peak in May at 328 homes coming to market. In July only 239 homes were listed. In August this number dropped to 198 new listing across the entire County and finished September with 223 new homes coming to market. When added to the few remaining previously listed homes supplies remain limited. The number of homes offered for sale remains consistently at about the 2 months’ supply level. Remember that a balanced market, where bidding wars don’t take place, is 6 months’ supply!
The bidding wars are continuing. In February the highest level of bidding wars occurred with the Listing Price to Selling Price Ratio averaging over 11% above asking prices. Since then, the level of bidding wars prices has been steadily dropping. Usually, June is the top selling month of the year. The average price for June was 4.9% above asking price. The average selling price to listing price in July, fell to 4.1% above asking prices. It has started to climb again due to further reduction of inventory in August to 4.3% above asking.
With more Sellers aggressively pricing their homes to the top of the market, bidding dropped a bit to +1.95 above asking prices. Remember in January we started the year with 92 homes sold across the County. We peaked in May with sales of 267 homes selling. June was quieter, as detailed above, with sales of only 222 homes, falling again in July to 201 homes sold and finishing the summer months with only 196 sales in August. September sales dropped significantly across the county, limited by supply, selling 186 homes. September has always been higher than August as we enter the fall selling cycle.
Inventories of available properties remain unusually tight, however, even with bidding wars occurring Sellers are pushing up the average listing price to the highest level yet. The average listing price in September hit an all-time high of $664,746. The average selling prices have been sitting around the $635,000 mark. The average selling price peaked in June, across the County, at $649,211, falling during July to $609,131. The prices have started to rebound in August to $633,055. As Predicted the average selling price rose dramatically despite the lower Listing to Sell Ratio just over 100% of asking in September to a new record selling price of $653,662 The average number of days it takes to sell a home has risen from a low in April and May of 10 days, to 12 days in June, 15 days in July and 16 days for the month of August and finishing down to 14 days in September.
Again, I’ll reiterate, the reason that the Listing Price to Selling Price ratio is declining in spite of low inventories is the result of some Homeowners trying to push the market by listing at a top selling price for a specific size and feature of a home and are therefore not receiving bidding wars. They actually end up selling 2% to 3% below listing price. Homes priced below market, say at $599,900, about $50K to $75K below value are getting massive bids and often do better than a market priced home. Buyers from out of town, with an out-of-town Realtor, are looking at Realtor.ca and can only see competing homes for sale. Out of Town Realtors cannot see what homes are actually selling for.
WOODSTOCK:
In January there were only 35 new listings on homes offered for sale, since then the number of homes offered for sale has steadily increased month by month, peaking in May at 165 homes available, falling to 127 new listings in June and 111 new listings in July. Dropping further in August and September to 82 and 83 new listings respectively. When added to the few remaining, previously listed homes, inventories of available homes remain limited. The last few months have seen a marginal increase to about 1 ½ months’ supply, dropping in July to just over a month’s supply and August. Inventories have rebounded to June levels in September. Remember a balanced market is 6 months’ supply!
The bidding wars are still occurring. This means every properly priced home has experienced Bidding Wars. The highest listing to sell price ratio occurred in May at 109.4% of asking prices. The percentage of over bidding has slipped in this year’s unusually quieter months of June and July with offers successful at 104.6% and 104.1% of asking prices, respectively. In August this average rebounded marginally to 104.9% and 105.9%. in September. The number of days to sell a home has steadily increased from only 8 days in March and April to 16 days in July and August, finishing September down to 13 days.
Do not forget the number of homes sold in Woodstock have been steady, limited by low inventories and driven by bidding wars. In March we sold 105 homes. In April, this number fell a bit to 98 homes selling, in May sales jumped to 116 homes sold, in June things leveled to 110 homes sold and dropping again in July to 107 homes sold. In September that number fell again across the city of Woodstock to only 66 homes sold.
The highest average selling price was realized back in March at $629,056. The average price in May fell to $577,154 and rose again in June to $618,817, slipping again in July to $581,848. August moved up slightly to $597,872 and September came in back in low $600,000s to an average of $617,237 across the city.
INGERSOLL:
The bidding wars are continuing as a result. In January homeowners averaged 1.5% above asking price. This means most homes experienced Bidding Wars. In February and March, the sale prices exploded, remained above 19% of asking prices. In April and May, this average list to sell ratio still finished at respectable 14.9% above asking prices. In June and July, the lower sales rates caused a fall back to January levels, just over 100% of asking and remains there in September. In January it took 44 days to sell a home and by April through to July, it has been averaging at about 12 days to sell. It rose to 17 days in August is now back down to only 13 for September as we enter the fall selling season.
Let us look at the number of homes sold. In January we started the year with 12 homes sold across the town. In February, this number increased to 27 homes sold, in March through May sales exceeded 39 sales per month. June finished up the first 6 months with 35 sales and dropped again in July to 28 homes sold, rising in August to 31 homes sold and finishing September with 35 homes sold.
The continuing tight inventory of homes available for purchase, still drove prices upward. January delivered the highest average selling price of 2021 at $673,414. In February, a drop in average value to $555,184, March delivered an average of $589,535, April rose to $605,896, May delivered average $560,056. The average selling price in June for Ingersoll rose significantly to $649,366 before leveling in July to $619,141 and $603,742 in August. September bounced back, as predicted, to an average of $639,777, the second highest price average for 2021. Remember, the number of monthly sales are small, and therefore, the averages can change dramatically month over month.
NORWICH TOWNSHIP:
Remember that inventories and therefore sales are very minimal. Price performance is really the result of the Township’s proximity to Woodstock.
In January there were 14 new listings, February 15 new listings, March, 20 new listings, April, 19 new listings, May, 21 new listing, June, 12 new listings, July, 18 new listings, August, only 13 new listings and finishing September with 20 new listings of homes coming to market, only 1 listing shy of May’s record for the year. With very few listings available, inventories averaged below 2 months’ supply, except the month of July when it rose to 3.5 months of homes coming to market. Norwich County currently sits at 1 2/3 months’ supply. Remember a balanced market is 6 months’ supply!
In January homeowners averaged 97.9 % of asking price. Bidding Wars began in February and did not stop. In February, April, May and June, homeowners averaged above 100% of asking prices. In March, this competitive activity peaked, at 104.5% of asking prices and finished up July with the highest Listing Price to Selling Ratio for the year so far, at 105% of asking prices. However, in August there were fewer bidding wars and in September Homeowners averaged only 97.9% of their asking price. The reason for this, in a low inventory market, indicates the homeowners in this Township are pricing their homes at the top of the market, resulting in virtually no bidding taking place. For most of the Spring, it took an average of 15 days to sell a home. In July this dropped to an average of 12 days across the Township. However, because of homeowners in the County are pushing up their asking prices, the number of days to get a sale, rose to a record of 25 days, heading back to the January and February days to sell average.
Let us look at sales across Norwich Township. In January we started the year with 11 homes sold across the Township. In February, this number increased to 20 homes sold. In the months of March, April and May the average number of sales was 17 homes per month. In June, this number settled in at 10 homes sold, and fell again in July to 7 homes sold. July is typically a quiet month. This number jumped in August to 12 homes sold and rose again in September to 16 homes sold across the county.
With this continuing tight inventory of homes available, what did this do to prices? January started the year at a whopping average price of $770,727. In February, an average value of $699,460, March bounced back to $738,670, April came in $653,479. May jumped to an average price $711,358. The average house price peaked in June in the township at $832,269. July fell back to $728,414. In August, because of the higher number of homes in the mix, the average price came in at $630,533 and finished September at $819,463. A more relevant number is the average price in Norwich township for the first 9 months collectively for 2021, which averaged at $722,089 for the 126 sales recorded to date. This represents an increase of 25.6% over the same period last year.
A better pricing analysis comparison is either Oxford County as a whole or Woodstock because of its proximity to the Township.
SUMMARY::
This madness is not going away if people are not moving. A lot of apprehension still exists with Covid and the active case counts in Western Canada. Sales won’t slow until December, but don’t look for a price drop.
Always remember, I am here to help in any way that I can be of service to you and your family.
First, I have a message for First Time Home Buyers. In this crazy on-going Covid Market, you may need Family support for the down payment to help you bid what appears to be 10% to 15% over the asking price or look for a real fixer upper with good potential. The first step is to get pre-qualified by a Mortgage Broker or your Bank. Once you find out what you can reasonably afford, plan to bid above the asking price as described above with a Cash, Non-Conditional Offer with a short closing if you are renting. With the average price still rising, you will logically be able to pay back Mom and Dad within 24 months. Sweat equity in a fixer upper can yield big dividends. As your Realtor, I will investigate market values in your planned neighbourhood and provide comparable sales.
Now for you Move-Up Buyers, now is the best time to use some of that equity that you have built up over the last year. The first step is to get pre-qualified by your existing mortgage holder and outline how your new mortgage will be blended without penalty. Once you find out what you can reasonably afford, I will evaluate the Market Value of your home and outline all contingencies at no cost to you. This will give you the ability to safely overbid the asking price with a Cash Non-Conditional Offer and a closing of 2 to 3 months. If priced reasonably, you can expect the same over-bidding that you are making. Your equity will cover the excess price on Closing. With the average home selling within 2 weeks, the risk is virtually non-existent.
Lastly, if you do not have to sell, this is the worst time to do so! Every day that passes brings increased equity to our current homeowners.
I am here ready to assist!
Do not wait, pick up the phone, or email and I will be at your side, looking after the best interests of You and Your Family!
Just Call:
Cell- 519-535-3975
Home Office- 548-688-8833
Email- gib@youtfavouriterealtors.com
MLS connected Website – http://OxfordProperties.ca
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